Expect Changes in Russia As Response to Wagner Rebellion

The challenge to Russia’s military and leadership from the mercenary Wagner Group marks a setback to Putin’s stature and possibly the Ukraine war effort.

Does the insurrection of the Wagner forces pose a real threat of upheaval in Russia?

No. The country is not on the verge of a civil war or major upheaval,

even if there is a not negligible level of discontent with the state of affairs across the country.

President Vladimir Putin likely raised the specter of civil war to demonstrate that he is prepared to deal harshly with the mutineers,

to persuade them to back down and to deter others from joining them,

and to justify in advance the severe measures of repression he is now likely to introduce to ensure that no similar threat emerges in the future.

That said, in the aftermath of the rebellion, we should expect to see a government reshuffling.